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Decision Making
Making Good Decisions

City of San Antonio and Bexar County Emergency Operations Center
It can be hard to make "good" decisions during an emergency. It is particularly difficult when tropical cyclones strike because their speed, direction, and intensity can be difficult to predict. In addition, there are complex factors to take into consideration, including communicating with the public, coordinating with decision makers and elected officials, and working with emergency response partners. For these and other reasons, a "good" decision about hurricane evacuations is one that is prepared for well in advance of an approaching storm, and even begins during the planning phase. Your Hurricane Evacuation Studies, Technical Data Report products, and Post-Storm Assessments are all examples of planning tools and resources that can be used to support your decision-making process. HURREVAC and SLOSH are additional tools that can be used operationally. As the storm approaches, you can rely on your planning scenarios and HES operational tools to ensure a safe and effective response to protect your community from the impacts of tropical cyclones.
In this section, you'll go through a scenario based on the experiences of local and county emergency managers who have firsthand experience with decision-making during landfalling hurricanes. The scenario presents situations that will likely differ from your community's conditions, but it illustrates some of the general considerations that should be made at various times of the decision-making process as a storm approaches.
Sound decision-making by emergency managers is based on a number of factors and encompasses all phases of preparation, operations, response, and recovery. Some of the main principles that will be emphasized in the scenario are:
- Monitor national forecast products, especially those from NHC
- Be aware of local events (e.g., conventions, sporting events, road construction) that could affect evacuation timing.
- Holidays can also affect the number of people that need to evacuate as well as the availability of key players needed to implement your emergency plan. Make sure you know how to reach these people during hurricane season.
- Assess the forecast uncertainty and prepare for impacts one category higher than the forecasted intensity and landfall closer than predicted
- Use decision-making tools such as HURREVAC to help tie weather impacts to community characteristics and vulnerabilities identified in the Hurricane Evacuation Study for your area
- Act conservatively to save lives and be prepared to take the political heat if the storm loses intensity or hits farther away than forecast
Sometimes the best decision that can be made with the information available to you at the time will be inadequate, and sometimes it will be wildly unpopular. But if you prepare thoroughly, use the available forecast products wisely, and act conservatively to save lives, you can make the decision that is best for your community.
Pre-season Preparations

FEMA-funded exercise to test emergency procedures before the 2006 hurricane season
Before we begin the scenario, let's talk a bit about what you should do long before a storm is on your doorstep. Good hurricane decision-making really begins with pre-season readiness and preparedness activities. The results of these actions are demonstrated throughout hurricane season and after landfall. Some examples of pre-hurricane activities that lead to sound decisions include:
- Maintain up-to-date emergency plans that describe how to prepare for and respond to a hurricane
- Attend hurricane planning courses offered by FEMA and NHC
- Establish communication paths and effective coordination procedures with other decision makers, community agencies involved in hurricane preparations, and the media
- Conduct training and periodic exercises to acquaint people with their roles and responsibilities and determine if you've thought of everything you need to handle a hurricane-related emergency
- Develop and maintain a relationship with your local NWS forecast office and stay in contact with them
- Know how to assess available forecast information, especially probabilities, and how that information relates to your potential actions
- Become familiar with information and tools available for decision making
In particular, you need the following:
- An up-to-date community hurricane Emergency Operations Plan (sometimes called an Emergency Operations Procedure, discussed later on the next page)
- Identifies what to do and who does it
- May contain annexes and appendices dealing with specific hazards like hurricanes and include checklists and procedures that tell how to carry out the plans
- Regional Hurricane Evacuation Plan (discussed later in this section)
- A state-level "umbrella" plan that coordinates the actions of counties within that region.
- Advisory and forecast products from the NHC/WFOs (discussed in the Forecasting section)
- Forecast information helps officials decide when to take specific actions as detailed in EOPs
- The Hurricane Evacuation Study (HES) (discussed in the Emergency Management section)
- Provides information crucial for developing plans and procedures for evacuation and sheltering
- Includes surge mapping atlas; evacuation clearance times; and transportation, shelter, and vulnerability analyses for communities
- Decision support tools such as HURREVAC and SLOSH
- HURREVAC combines forecast information and community information from the HES to aid in making evacuation decisions.
- SLOSH provides potential storm surge estimates for various scenarios for planning purposes
- National Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM: http://www.fema.gov/hazard/map/firm.shtm) depict the 100-year flood plain. This information can be used with storm surge maps to get a better idea of what is at risk in the county.
Local EOP

The local Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) describes local plans and procedures for handling emergencies. By having a plan in place before an emergency, your community can avoid a lot of stress and unnecessary expense.
Three components of a typical EOP include:
- The basic plan: Defines who does what in an emergency and how the public will be warned
- Functional annexes: Provides the procedures to be followed
- Hazard-specific appendices: Special procedures for hazards like hurricanes (It is possible to develop these appendices in some detail, down to the checklist level.)
The decision to execute many of the steps in a local EOP will be based on NHC forecasts of the hurricane track and intensity and WFO forecasts of local weather and hazards. These products are discussed in more detail and examples are provided in the Forecasting section.
EOPs must be revised and updated regularly. Community characteristics change, leadership and staff changes, resources change, and responsibilities change. All of these changes should be reflected in your EOP. In the words of one hurricane-savvy emergency manager: "You can never be prepared—you can only be preparing."
Regional Evacuation Plan

Past experience with recent hurricanes and other events have shown that large evacuations need to be coordinated across jurisdictions to ensure that evacuees can be moved safely and efficiently and that the infrastructure in their new locations can provide adequate services. In addition, recovery planning also should include a regional component to ensure that the region as a whole is able to function as normally as possible, as soon as possible after a disaster.
Some of the components of a regional evacuation plan include:
- Structure for how officials from various jurisdictions will work together in an emergency
- Definition of roles and responsibilities of each partner
- Communication pathways and plans
- Coordination of evacuation zones
- Design of consistent and effective evacuation orders, public awareness
- Traffic flow plans, including addressing fuel availability along evacuation routes
- Arrangements for evacuating and sheltering special needs populations
Communication

FEMA, state, and local officials meet about hurricane recovery actions
It’s critical to know far in advance who the key players are in an emergency and to coordinate with them on developing emergency plans. Check that they have their plans ready and make sure that the plans of these different groups work with one another toward the common goal of preparing the community for the hurricane. Also, develop relationships and coordinate with other emergency managers in your area so that everyone is aware of what the others are doing.
Below are some of the services, stakeholders, plans, and issues that should be addressed in emergency plans.
Services | Example Stakeholders |
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Communication |
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Transportation |
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Critical and Special Facilities |
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Utilities |
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Plans | Example Response Issues |
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Emergency Response |
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Emergency Public Information |
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Physical Facilities |
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Debris Management |
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Damage Assessment |
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Scenario: Overview
The rest of this section will take you through a scenario that is based on an actual historical hurricane. The various steps you will go through follow a format for handling storm emergencies that was originally developed by the Lee County Florida Emergency Management Division. Your hurricane procedures may be structured a little differently but probably have the same general phased approach triggered by the proximity of the hurricane at distinct time periods:
- Planning: Monitor the forecasts and begin thinking about implementing the EOP
- Awareness: Notify people of the impending storm
- Standby: Prepare emergency services
- Decision: Decide if and when to evacuate
- Preparation: Place resources into position
- Evacuation: Evacuate vulnerable population
- Storm Event: Take shelter and begin assessing needs
- Evaluation: Assess the emergency and respond
- Recovery: Rebuild and plan for the future
Scenario: Planning

You are an emergency manager for the fictitious Coastal County in the eastern end of the Florida panhandle. You have just come back from a few days off, relaxing between the late summer fishing tourist season and the approaching winter tourist season.
While driving to work, you listen to an update on Tropical Storm Opal, located in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It has just been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane.
You arrive at your office and look over the information currently available to you from the NHC
- Tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories
- Tropical cyclone discussions
- Wind speed probability forecasts
You load this information into HURREVAC. It is time for you to make a decision!
Situation Update
Review the available data by looking at the HURREVAC map and the graphical timeline below it, which summarizes information from NWS forecasts, the county's HES, and HURREVAC. Once you’ve finished, choose from the possible decisions.
Coastal County, Florida
October 2: 10 AM CDT


Note:
- No calculation for when to begin evacuation. The hurricane is too far away.
- Hurricane Evacuation Study says 10 hours minimum time to complete the evacuation within the county for a Category 1 or 2 storm, with low numbers of tourists and a medium response time
Decision
Hurricane Opal is drifting about in the lower Gulf of Mexico. What do you do now? Choose the best decision.
Please make a selection, then click Done.
Consequences: Your staff is thrown into chaos, since they don't know how to conduct an HES. This study takes two to three years to complete and is carried out by FEMA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Meanwhile, a hurricane is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and you're expected to know what to do.
Critique: You will not be able to deal efficiently with the current disaster since your plans and procedures should be based on the HES. We'll give you a break and tell you that the HES is already done.
Now make a better choice, then click Done.
Consequences: Your staff is thrown into chaos, having only hours to produce an EOP that takes months and requires coordination among a large number of agencies.
Critique: You have waited too long to create plans and procedures for dealing with a hurricane. We'll give you a break and tell you that the EOP was finished a few months ago.
Now make a better choice, then click Done.
Consequences: Your organization has already developed a basic EOP that establishes policies and assigns responsibilities for tasks during emergencies likely to occur in your area, and it's up-to-date.
Critique: This is the best choice. Your organization can now monitor weather conditions and react when certain predicted meteorological criteria are met. You've retrieved the checklist for hurricanes evacuation, which indicates that you should:
- Check emergency equipment and supplies
- Informally contact appropriate agencies to know where the key players are
Consequences: The mayor and other elected officials are pleased because the hurricane seems like a remote threat and no one is eager to alarm tourists and citizens. However, you have a nagging suspicion that you should be doing something, despite the current pleasant weather.
Critique: You would do well to at least get your hurricane checklists from the EOP and review them (choice c).
Scenario: Awareness

It is now 4 PM on October 2, the same day you first learned about the hurricane, and you are in your office. You have authorized limited use of the Emergency Operations Center (EOC), which means it is staffed with a minimal crew to monitor the tropical cyclone, check communications with other agencies, and inventory resources. The TV is on so you can watch weather reports while going about your normal duties. You're beginning to think about evacuations.
Here are some factors that can influence an evacuation decision:
- The number of tourists in the area
- Special community events
- Roads or bridges under construction
- The amount of remaining daylight
- The probability of a hurricane strike
The predicted time when 39 mph (34 kt) winds will intersect the decision arc is a good indicator of when you should have your evacuation plans ready to implement. In this exercise, be sure to notice when 39 mph (34 kt) winds are predicted to intersect with the decision arc for your area. How much time do you have before you should start thinking about evacuating for a hurricane of this size, intensity, and forward speed? Also, think about what needs to be done to support an evacuation.
You are receiving NHC advisories and talking with your local WFO. The computer program HURREVAC is up and running on your PC, and you have just loaded Opal #21 Advisory data.
Look at the information available to you and then make your next decision.
Situation Update
Coastal County, Florida
October 2: 4 PM CDT


Decision
What do you do now? Choose the best decision.
Please make a selection, then click Done.
Results: The EOC is open and staffed at maximum level, and a press conference is arranged so you can announce the mandatory evacuation.
Consequences: After activating the EOC and calling for the evacuation, you can't implement the decision because nothing is in place (e.g., none of your resources have been placed on "standby" status). Some people may evacuate. However, as they move inland away from the coast, they have nowhere to go since you haven't called for shelters to be opened yet. With no control points set up, traffic is gridlocked, especially on bridges and where roads are under construction.
Now make a better choice, then click Done.
Results: The EOC is open and staffed at maximum level, and a press conference is arranged so you can announce the voluntary evacuation.
Consequences: Many officials object to calling for evacuation when the hurricane is still so far away. And the public must agree, since very few people evacuate.
Critique: After activating the EOC and calling for the voluntary evacuation, you can't implement the decision because nothing is in place (e.g., none of your resources have been placed on "standby" status). Although a limited activation of the EOC is a good decision-perhaps one where specialists (such as public safety, transportation, and communications people) are brought in as needed- it is premature to call for voluntary evacuation. Probably most people will not comply with such an early call for evacuation, and you could lose credibility in the next emergency. You don't want to undermine public confidence or cause unnecessary expense should the hurricane miss or dissipate.
Now make a better choice, then click Done.
Results: The EOC is partially activated (meaning specialists such as public safety, transportation, and communications people are brought in as needed) so officials can use it to gather data on the whereabouts and number of tourists and residents. This is the "awareness" stage in the hurricane section of your local EOP. Your procedures call for this stage 72 to 60 hours prior to the landfall of the eye. The EOP doesn't mention landfall of the tropical storm-force winds or their intersection with the decision arc, since the location of tropical storm-force winds depends on the size of the hurricane, and the decision arc depends on the intensity and forward motion of the hurricane, along with other factors.
Consequences: Some officials wonder why you are preparing so early. The eye of the hurricane is far out in the Gulf and not predicted to come ashore for 69 hours or so. These officials also don't believe that such a long-term forecast should be taken so seriously.
Critique: This is the best choice. You have taken this step because it is in your local emergency procedures. The emergency procedures are based ultimately on the HES for your area, and these procedures recommend taking certain steps, according to the size and forward motion of the tropical cyclone, that allow the community to make their preparations in an orderly fashion.
Results: You continue to monitor weather updates while going about your normal activities.
Consequences: You are now letting the situation dictate your actions rather than taking steps to anticipate problems. You may be playing catch-up soon.
Critique: The hurricane is far out in the Gulf, and the NHC predicts the eye is still 69 hours away from landfall, if it continues as forecasted. But you have fewer than 69 hours to take effective action because what's important at this stage is when the tropical storm force winds arrive, not the eye.
Now make a better choice, then click Done.
Evacuation Times
Your HES estimates 10 hours to evacuate areas at risk within the county. If the 39 mph (34 kt) winds are predicted to reach the decision arc in 46 hours, you should complete the evacuation 10 hours after that time, or 56 hours from now if all goes according to the prediction (graphic below).

Why worry about the arrival of 39 mph (34 kt) winds? Winds of 39 mph can blow debris onto roads and threaten high-profile vehicles, and those winds are forecast to arrive at the decision arc in 46 hours. The tropical cyclone affects a lot more territory than the area just adjacent to its eyewall.
And what if things don’t go according to the current forecast? What if the storm speeds up and/or intensifies?
Although there is a great deal of uncertainty in a 72-hour hurricane forecast, and a 17% probability of hurricane-force winds seems low, at this stage it really is relatively high. (Look at the map above to see the wind probabilities, and review the pages on dealing with uncertainty in the Forecasting/NWP section if you do not understand why 17% is considered high at this point in time.) The hurricane may indeed veer away from your community, but it may stay on target, grow in size and intensity, and even pick up forward speed in your direction, leaving you less time to set the local emergency procedures in motion. It is best to be prepared.
You need to identify those people and facilities most at risk to storm surge from a hurricane with the forecasted magnitude (as indicated in the HES) so you can determine what needs to be done to get sufficient shelters ready to receive them and to activate traffic control procedures.
Question
Question
Assume the 72-hour forecast predicts that the eye of a hurricane will make landfall in 69 hours. According to the graph below, what is the approximate location error for this forecast? (Choose the best answer.)
The correct answer is c.
To determine the error, find the forecast period (72) on the bottom axis of the graph and then follow the line up until it intersects the red line. Follow an imaginary line from there over to the forecast error on the left axis (about 155 n mi).
Scenario: Standby

The "standby" period is roughly 60 to 48 hours before landfall of the eye and, in our scenario, about 35 hours prior to 39 mph (34 kt) winds intersecting the decision arc. Here are some typical decisions made during this phase:
- Continue notifying affected agencies: The more you keep them informed, even if you don't have significant news, the more they will feel a part of the process and that they know the latest information.
- Contact Department of Transportation: Construction on roads needs to be halted and the roadways reestablished quickly if they are essential for evacuation routes.
- Recommend all affected agencies check resources and staffing and confirm their plans, procedures, and agreements: Where are your shortfalls and where can you obtain the resources in time to carry out your plans?
- Coordinate with inland and adjacent communities as may be required by your regional plan.
- Coordinate with special institutions: Hard decisions will need to be made about closing schools, how to handle evacuation routes, and how to evacuate people without transportation and special needs populations
- Confirm shelter arrangements.
The hurricane procedures for Coastal County also recommend that you:
- Activate the EOC on a limited basis
- Determine the population currently at risk, including special-needs populations-those who have health problems or physical or mental challenges that make it difficult for them to evacuate-and residents and visitors who do not speak English
- Contact shelter personnel to update them on the status of the hurricane but take no further action with them yet
- Begin periodic media briefings
- Contact emergency response agencies, give them a status report, and suggest the lowest state of alert
Remember that hurricanes can change course and intensity very rapidly. This means that you may have less time to prepare than you might think. Some actions need to occur now in order to be complete by the time 39 mph (34 kt) winds intersect the decision arc.
It is now 10 PM (Oct. 2), and you have returned to your office to monitor the progress of the hurricane. Opal Advisory #22 has just been issued, and you have loaded it into HURREVAC. Take a look at the updates now.
Situation Update
Coastal County, Florida
October 2: 10 PM CDT


Scenario: Decision

You went home about 11 PM, October 2, instructing the person covering the night shift to call you if anything develops. At 4 AM the next morning, the phone rings. You are informed that the NHC has issued a Hurricane Watch.
The NHC predicts landfall of the eye in 48 hours, and her HURREVAC calculations indicate the 39 mph (34 kt) winds will intersect the decision arc in 33 hours. The person covering the night shift wonders if the office should be moved from standby mode to decision mode, which typically is activated when the eye is 48 to 36 hours away.
The decision stage means deciding whether to commit to an evacuation that will begin sometime later. If the decision is to evacuate, then affected agencies will have the time to make their preparations before the actual evacuation phases are begun.
What should you do now? Review the available data, including the HURREVAC map, and make your decision.
Situation Update
Coastal County, Florida
October 3: 4 AM CDT

Decision
What do you do now? Choose the best decision.
Please make a selection, then click Done.
Results:
- Make decision to evacuate when 39 mph (34 kt) winds reach the decision arc (may be bigger or smaller, depending on hurricane intensity).
- Continue with partial activation of the EOC (essential staff).
- Hold pre-mobilization briefing with emergency agencies and elected officials.
- Complete preparation of vehicles, equipment, supplies, and facilities. Give out assignments for deployment and staging.
- Inform media of what actions are being taken, the status of the hurricane, and to expect a recommendation for evacuation soon.
- Put emergency staff on final alert status.
Consequences: None immediately.
Critique: This is the best choice. Although the landfall of the eye is predicted to be 48 hours away, tropical storm-force winds will arrive hours ahead of that, and there is the possibility the hurricane could speed up in the meantime. You should make your plans for the final decision to evacuate, given the ramp-up time needed for all the various agencies to prepare a safe and fast evacuation, and the fact that the hurricane could intensify and pick up forward speed. As one emergency manager put it, "You need to have as much advance notice as possible. It's better to be sitting there leaning forward and having nothing happening, than trying to catch up."
In some situations, you may have to take action to reduce the population numbers even before NHC has issued a watch. For example, in communities with barrier islands and/or a holiday weekend with a large number of visitors, you may need to issue an early mandatory evacuation so that you have a realistic chance of getting people out of harm's way.
On the other hand, you need to be reasonably confident in these decisions because they have real economic consequences. If the storm stalls or slows down, your community's departments could spend all their overtime staff budgets in a hurry. If the storm eventually lands, those costs may be recovered if a federal disaster declaration is made. But if it moves elsewhere, your community will be scrambling to find the money, and hurricane season isn't over-you could still get hit later. You may not be very popular when all this is over.
Results: Remain in standby mode.
Consequences: Emergency services and support agencies remain on standby. If a decision to evacuate is made later, they may not have enough time to prepare.
Critique: According to your emergency procedures, the decision stage can be reached anywhere between 48 and 36 hours before the predicted landfall of the eye, and the NHC predicts at 4 AM that the eye is still 48 hours away. You are still okay, as far as the book goes, to hold off the decision until 10 AM. However, it is generally better to err on the conservative side and initiate these stages at the earliest opportunity as long as the hurricane is predicted to be headed in your direction.
Try a different choice, then click Done.
Results: For now, the EOC remains on limited activation, and no further action is taken aside from periodically contacting other agencies to check with them and monitoring advisories.
Consequences: Most agencies stand down as a result, and key players resume normal activities.
Critique: This action is ill-advised. You could argue for postponing the decision because your procedures allow the decision stage to be activated anywhere between 48 to 36 hours before landfall of the eye. However, forecasts still show the hurricane heading in your direction and predicted to intensify.
Try a different choice, then click Done.
4 AM Actions
Although you're pretty groggy at 4 AM, you finally tell your assistant to initiate the decision stage of the hurricane procedures immediately and that you'll be there in an hour to give the pre-mobilization briefing.

If you think you could have delayed the decision stage for 6 hours until more information is available (and you are more awake), note this fact on some paper and refer to it later to see if there would be any effects.
Question
Question
The center of a Category 2 hurricane is forecast to come ashore at your location in 36 hours. The tropical storm-force winds extend 220 n mi out from the center. The hurricane is moving at 20 knots. How long before the 39 mph (34 kt) winds start affecting your location? (Choose the best answer.)
The correct answer is c.
If it takes 36 hours for a hurricane moving at 20 kt to reach a point, the center of the hurricane is 720 nautical miles away (36 hours x 20 kt* = 720 n mi). The tropical storm-force winds extend 220 n mi from the center (which you just calculated to be at 720 n mi), so the distance between your location and the edge of the wind field is 500 n mi. Divide that distance by the speed to find the time the tropical storm-force winds will reach your location (500 n mi / 20 kt = 25 hours).
*Recall that 1 knot is 1 n mi/hr. In order to do this calculation, both the distance and speed units need to be the same (i.e., either both in terms of nautical miles and nautical miles per hour or miles and miles per hour). If the speed in the question had been given as 23 mph, you would first need to it convert to knots to get the speed units in the same units as the distance (n mi). Since 1 mph = 0.87 kt, 23 mph = 20 kt (23 x 0.87).
Question
Question
If your HES indicates an evacuation time of 23 hours for a Category 3 hurricane, and the tropical storm-force winds are expected to arrive in 25 hours, when should you plan to start the evacuation? (Choose the best answer.)
The correct answer is b.
You want to have finished the evacuation before the tropical storm-force winds arrive in 25 hours. Subtract the evacuation time from the time to arrival of the wind field (25 hours - 23 hours = 2 hours).
Scenario: Preparation

It is now 10 AM on October 3. The decision was made early this morning to go with the preparations for an evacuation, so you are now in the preparation stage of your community's hurricane procedures, a stage that usually commences 45 to 33 hours before the eye comes ashore.
Take a look at the 10 AM update.
Situation Update
Coastal County, Florida
October 3: 10 AM CDT
NOTE: Hurricane Watch has been issued

10 AM Actions

Now that the decision has been made to evacuate, it is time to accelerate evacuation plans and:
- Fully activate the EOC
- Partially mobilize resources
- Start documenting expenses
- Verify resources and staffing prior to opening shelters
- Make public service announcements
- Caution! Don't recommend school closures yet so children can be kept out of harm's way and watched while the adults make their preparations.
Right now you should pay less attention to the location of the eye than to the location of the 39 mph (34 kt) tropical storm-force winds. The evacuation should be completed before these winds reach the community. Why is that?
The main concern is that, whether because of an imperfect forecast, an overpopulated coastline, or a late evacuation, cars will be stuck in gridlock on roads when a major hurricane makes landfall. Cars near the coast will be caught in the storm surge, and those farther inland can be flipped by the high winds or have debris fall on them. Some communities use a phased evacuation to help prevent gridlock by getting the highest risk people (those in areas where they could drown, those in mobile or manufactured homes not built to withstand hurricane winds, and special needs populations) to safety first.
The time needed to prepare depends on many factors, such as:
- Daytime or nighttime
- Weekday, weekend, or holiday
- Intensity of storm
Remember that the forecast for when and where these winds will arrive could change drastically, so this is a good time to consider planning for a hurricane one category higher in intensity. Errors in forecasting maximum wind speed and forward speed of the hurricane can greatly affect:
- How far the population must be evacuated
- How much time is available before tropical storm-force winds strike
Scenario: Evacuation
It is now October 3, 4 PM. According to your hurricane procedures, the Evacuation stage begins 36 to 24 hours before the eye comes ashore. The table below provides an overview of what has happened.
October 2 10 AM Preparatory stage Eye forecast more than 72 hours away |
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October 2 4 PM Awareness stage Eye forecast 69 hours away |
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October 2 10 PM Standby stage Eye forecast 60 hours away |
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October 3 4 AM Decision stage Eye forecast 48 hours away |
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October 3 10 AM Preparation stage Eye forecast 41 hours away |
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Situation Update
Look at the map showing the present position of the hurricane as well as the other status information and then make your next decision.
Coastal County, Florida
October 3: 4 PM CDT
NOTE: Hurricane Watch

Your community’s hurricane procedures recommend advancing to the evacuation stage 36 to 24 hours before landfall of the eye. That means:
- Full mobilization of emergency personnel
- Opening enough shelters to handle the number of evacuees
It also means you should evaluate how much of the population should be evacuated. To make this decision, you need to consider the time of day, when the 39 mph (34 kt) winds are likely to arrive, possible forecast errors, and what populations are more vulnerable.
Decision
Your community's hurricane procedures recommend advancing to the evacuation stage 36 to 24 hours before landfall of the eye. That means:
- Full mobilization of emergency personnel
- Opening enough shelters to handle the number of evacuees
It also means you should evaluate how much of the population should be evacuated. To make this decision, you need to consider the time of day, when the 39 mph (34 kt) winds are likely to arrive, possible forecast errors, and what populations are more vulnerable.
What is your best decision at this point in time (you might want to make a note of it for reference later)?
Please make a selection, then click Done.
Results: The evacuation order is announced at 10 PM. Per your regional plan, you coordinate with surrounding counties to move and shelter evacuees moving from your county into their counties.
Consequences: Traffic is light and moving. Many people have decided not to comply with the mandatory evacuation or to wait until morning. A significant portion of the community has ridden out Category 1 and 2 hurricanes. And a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has never struck your county. Some decision makers and supporting agency heads are uncomfortable with this course of action, and their agencies may not fully comply.
Critique: This could be a good decision if the hurricane intensifies to a Category 3 or higher and directly strikes your area. However, this is the riskiest course of action, politically. Besides, a night evacuation is undesirable.
If the hurricane doesn't intensify or it veers away, you will harm your credibility. Just how much confidence do you have in the predictions? Enough to assume one level of storm intensity higher than Category 2? Also, what would be the consequences if you chased everyone out of the county and into an area where the hurricane does hit? What are the economic and political consequences of a needless, county-wide evacuation? Sometimes, the most extreme form of action can cause more trouble than a more considered one.
You may want to look at the consequences of the other choices before you make your final decision.
Results: At 6 AM the next morning the evacuation order goes out. All shelters are opened in the county and start receiving evacuees.
Consequences: Traffic does become rather heavy, somewhat delaying those evacuating from islands and low-lying coastal areas. However, traffic control points are handling the situation. More one-way lanes are opened up to facilitate movement away from the coast.
Critique: This could be a good decision if the hurricane does not go to a Category 3 or higher. Under those conditions, no place in the county is considered sufficiently safe (according to the HES), the decision arc expands (reducing the time available before the intersection of tropical storm force winds), and the population must be evacuated further inland to other counties.
If you already have people going to in-county shelters and the hurricane intensifies, then they will have to be re-located, a process that takes considerable time with special-needs populations, people who don't have their own transportation, and having to relocate shelter personnel, among other problems. Keep your fingers crossed if you decide to stick with this decision! It could be a "career decision," not to mention the possibility of casualties.
You may want to look at the consequences of the other choices before you make your final decision.
Results: Those populations begin evacuating inland. Sufficient shelters are opened to receive them.
Consequences: The roads are relatively clear.
Critique: This is a good decision if the hurricane doesn't intensify or increase forward speed, and it allows people in areas prone to storm surge to get onto relatively clear roads to head inland. Also, if the hurricane does intensify (but not too quickly), and people must be diverted from in-county shelters to out-of-county shelters, there will be relatively few people to relocate from vulnerable shelters to those further inland.
Additionally, you have used the "mandatory" recommendation sparingly. You don't want to use this recommendation inappropriately or you could harm your credibility. However, you have forgotten about your mobile home population which is vulnerable to wind and is outside of low-lying areas.
You may want to look at the consequences of the other choices before you make your final decision.
Results: The general population begins evacuating inland, mostly to the homes of relatives and friends or to hotels and motels.
Consequences: Officials feel comfortable with this decision. The roads are relatively clear.
Critique: This is a good decision if the hurricane doesn't intensify or increase forward speed. Voluntary evacuees are usually urged to make their own accommodations. This frees up shelters later for any possible mandatory evacuees. A voluntary evacuation gets people out of an area, decreasing the amount of road traffic should a mandatory evacuation of the general population be recommended later. Finally, with a voluntary evacuation, you're asking people to act on their own initiative; should the hurricane not intensify or otherwise cause much damage, they cannot blame you for "making" them leave.
You may want to look at the consequences of the other choices before you make your final decision.
Results: Preparations continue for an eventual evacuation.
Consequences: The roads are relatively clear. Everyone gets a good night's sleep.
Critique: This could be a good decision if the hurricane goes somewhere else or decreases in intensity. If the hurricane moves as predicted, in 6 hours, the 39 mph (34 kt) winds will be roughly 8 hours away from your decision arc. But it will also be 10 PM. If the hurricane speeds up or intensifies, you may be forced into considering a mandatory evacuation at night, after the late news is over, with 39 mph (34 kt) winds sweeping across the county by morning.
It is a tempting choice, however, because maybe the hurricane will decrease in intensity, slow down, or move off in another direction. Your refusal to push for an evacuation might be the more popular choice. Also, if the hurricane does strengthen into a Category 3 or 4, you could recommend a mandatory, out-of-county evacuation at that point and not have to consider moving people from in-county shelters to out-of-county shelters. Unless it's too late to safely conduct an evacuation at that point. Then what will you do?
You may want to look at the consequences of the other choices before you make your final decision.
Question
Question
The NHC is predicting landfall of the eye of a Category 2 hurricane in 37 hours. As you know, there can be errors in forecasting intensity and track this far into the future. What would happen if the hurricane intensified or gained forward speed (and maintained a course for your area)? (Choose all that apply)
The correct answers are a and c.
The decision arc expands if the storm intensifies, and there would be less time to complete the evacuation because people have to travel further away to escape storm surge and more damaging winds. The decision arc would also expand if the forward speed increases, because people would need to get an earlier start to be out of the area by the time the tropical storm-force storm winds come ashore.
Question
Question
The current forecast is that the right-front quadrant of the hurricane will come ashore in your area. What hazards can you expect? (Choose all that apply)
The correct answers are a, b, and c.
The wind speed of the hurricane is added to its forward speed in this quadrant, which also enhances the storm surge. The worst of the storm surge doesn’t occur until the hurricane-force winds and the eyewall arrive. However, the water will gradually rise, which could cut off low-lying evacuation routes. The HES for your community illustrates the effects of storm surge from hurricanes of various intensities. This can give you an early idea of which roadways will likely be unavailable. Also, tornadoes are generally more numerous in the right-front quadrant.
10 PM Summary

It's 10 PM now-6 hours later-and the NHC has just released another advisory. The details are on the next page, but essentially the hurricane is stronger, bigger, and is moving at you faster.
- Opal has intensified to a Category 3, its forward speed has increased, and a hurricane warning has been issued.
- The decision arc has expanded due to the higher storm intensity.
- It is now estimated to take 17 hours to evacuate the population out of the county to safe ground because the stronger storm will flood a larger area, requiring that people be moved further away.
- Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) intersected this bigger decision arc 12 hours ago and will reach mid-county in 9 hours.
- Hurricane-force winds penetrated this enlarged decision arc 6 hours ago.
If you had called for a mandatory in-county evacuation at 6 AM tomorrow morning, you would only have 1 hour before the 39 mph (34 kt) winds arrive. In fact, the hurricane-force winds will arrive before the in-county evacuation is finished. This is a potentially disastrous situation, but it was a decision that seemed reasonable at the time and with which more people would likely have complied.
An out-of-county evacuation called at 9 PM that evening could have gotten more people out of harm's way if they complied. However, people are reluctant to evacuate at night, and if they do, they may be more likely to go to shelters nearby so they don't have to travel in the dark. Your shelters could have filled up rapidly.
Which decision did you make? Hopefully, you can defend your decision to the public and your bosses later.
Let's look at the details. Be sure to note in the map that the probabilities of hurricane winds on either side of the track are still fairly low (28-30%), but landfall is still 19 hours away.
Situation Update
Coastal County, Florida
October 3: 10 PM CDT
NOTE: Hurricane Warning


NOTE: It is predicted that 17 hours are needed to evacuate everyone out of the county. Predictions show 39 mph (34 kt) winds coming ashore in 8 hours.
10 PM Actions

You recommend an immediate, mandatory, out-of-county evacuation.
Several officials grumble but go along with your decision, declaring that you should have recommended that 6 hours ago at 4 PM. Now you're facing a nighttime evacuation, and evacuees could be exposed to 39 mph (34 kt) winds for the last 11 hours of their evacuation. You lie down on your cot to stare at the fluorescent lights for a while.
Someone is shaking your shoulder; you open your eyes.
It's the next morning, 4 AM.
Go to the next page for your briefing.
Situation Update
Coastal County, Florida
October 4: 4 AM CDT
NOTE: Hurricane Warning


NOTE: The HES predicts 21 hours to evacuate the county for a Category 4 hurricane. Mandatory evacuation orders were issued 6 hours ago. You have only 6 hours left before winds come ashore, and you need 15. The evacuees could be exposed to 39 mph (34 kt) winds for 9 hours.
4 AM Summary
To sum up, here is the state of affairs at 4 AM
- Mandatory evacuation began 6 hours ago.
- The decision arc expanded due to increased storm intensity, indicating evacuation could take 21 hours to get everyone out of the county, leaving you with 15 hours to finish.
- You don't have 15 hours. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) are predicted to arrive onshore in about 6 hours.
- What will you do if these winds arrive as predicted? Let evacuees struggle through them for possibly 9 more hours? Send them to refuges of last resort or tell them to stay put?

We'll tackle those decisions in a moment. Some good things to do right now would be
- Rush to complete the evacuation
- Prepare refuges of last resort to be ready in 4 hours
- Reaffirm to the public the need to continue the evacuation
- At this point, you probably feel that you've been dipped in it and fried. Too bad! You have a long way to go. Let's push the clock forward 6 hours.
Scenario: Storm
It is now October 4, 10 AM. According to your hurricane procedures, the storm stage begins with the arrival of 40-mph winds or the flooding of primary evacuation routes. The table below provides an overview of what has happened and is happening.
October 2 10 AM Preparatory stage Eye forecast more than 72 hours away |
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October 2 4 PM Awareness stage Eye forecast 69 hours away |
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October 2 10 PM Standby stage Eye forecast 60 hours away |
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October 3 4 AM Decision stage Eye forecast 48 hours away |
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October 3 10 AM Preparation stage Eye forecast 41 hours away |
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October 3 4 PM Evacuation stage Eye forecast 37 hours away |
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October 3 10 PM Evacuation stage Eye forecast 19 hours away |
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October 4 4 AM Evacuation stage Eye fcst 15 hours away |
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Situation Update
Coastal County, Florida
October 4: 10 AM CDT
NOTE: Hurricane Warning


Note:
- 21 hours minimum time to complete the evacuation out of the county under anticipated conditions for a Category 4 hurricane
- Mandatory evacuation of the general population began 12 hours ago. According to the HES, it will take 9 more hours. However, the 39 mph (34 kt) winds have arrived
Decision
Checkpoints report many people are still on the road evacuating. Other reports indicate several hotels near the beaches with tourists who are just now deciding to evacuate. What should you do now? Choose the best answer.
Please make a selection, then click Done.
Results: This order is disseminated.
Consequences: The refuges of last resort were ready two hours ago, per earlier orders. There are more people crowding into them than anticipated since many evacuees were still on the roads.
Critique: This is the preferred decision. Bands of 39 mph (34 kt) winds are already sweeping across the county, blowing debris onto roads and posing a threat to high-profile vehicles. As road conditions deteriorate, more people could get hurt if traffic backs up on the roads from accidents and debris. It is best to get people into any kind of available shelter now, the lesser of evils at this point.
Results: This order is disseminated.
Consequences: The hurricane winds come onshore in 4 hours. One major bridge, earlier changed to one-way to facilitate evacuation, is blocked across both lanes with a jack-knifed 18-wheeler, and traffic is backed up on the bridge. Other side roads are blocked with debris and power and telephone lines are also coming down across them. Rain is coming down in sheets, causing flooding and reducing visibility. People are abandoning their vehicles in some areas as storm surge waters rise, but the wind is making it impossible for them to go anywhere. The eye is now six hours offshore.
Critique: The consequences explain themselves. By continuing the evacuation, you could risk more lives, including those of emergency personnel, than if you had sent them to refuges of last resort.
Results: This order is disseminated.
Consequences: The problem is that the traffic does not drop anywhere near "minimums" as weather conditions deteriorate. Hurricane-force winds arrive in 4 hours. Roads are blocked by blown over trucks, blown down power and telephone lines, trees, and other debris. Traffic backs up, and people abandon their cars when waters rise around them, putting them at further risk in the high winds that prevent them from going anywhere on foot. Emergency personnel do not want to abandon these people; they take more and more chances trying to help. Your ability to communicate with these personnel and the general public decreases as telephone networks become blocked with calls and lines go down.
Critique: The consequences explain themselves. By continuing the evacuation, you could risk more lives, including those of emergency personnel, than if you had sent them to refuges of last resort.
10 AM Summary

To sum up, here is the state of affairs at 10 AM
- Mandatory evacuation began 12 hours ago.
- The decision arc expanded due to increased storm intensity, indicating evacuation could take 21 hours to get everyone out of the county. That leaves you with 9 hours to finish.
- You don't have 9 hours. Tropical-force storm winds are already sweeping across the county.
- You have called off the evacuation, sending emergency personnel and evacuees still on the road to refuges of last resort.
Let’s push ahead 6 hours to 4 PM, when Opal Advisory 29 is due out.
Situation Update
Coastal County, Florida
October 4: 4 PM CDT
NOTE: CURRENT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS COUNTY; LANDFALL OF EYE IMMINENT


Note: CURRENT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS COUNTY; LANDFALL OF EYE IMMINENT
4 PM Actions

Principal activities while the hurricane is ongoing include:
- Personnel in the EOC should rest as much as possible. Long days are ahead.
- Make sure your emergency personnel are in safe areas and stay there, even though it means ignoring pleas for help from telephones or radios. Sending them out in the storm at this point risks their safety and ability to respond effectively once the hurricane moves on.
- Work on plans for the re-entry and recovery phase. Determine needs and requirements as reports come in of shortages and equipment losses. Also review plans for reestablishing communications.
- Stay in touch with shelters and refuges, as well as state and federal agencies.
Situation Update
Coastal County, Florida
October 4: 10 PM CDT
NOTE: Current 58-mph winds across county


Note: Hurricane force winds have ended
Decision
At this point in time, what is your next step? Choose the best answer.
Please make a selection, then click Done.
Results: Many of these calls were collected and set aside as they came in over telephones and radios while hurricane-force winds were in the county. Locations of trapped persons, traffic accidents, house fires, and other emergency calls are now given to emergency personnel who respond.
Consequences: Many responders can't navigate flooded roads or roads blocked by debris. Several emergency personnel themselves get into trouble and need rescue now. One emergency worker falls in a damaged building and is hurt. Helicopters and aircraft can't fly in the high winds (58 mph sustained and gusting higher), and rescue craft can't navigate the rough water.
Critique: First, it is too early to recommend anyone leave their shelters or refuges until the winds fall below 39 mph. Second, your procedures should specify what kinds of personnel should be allowed into certain areas under specific conditions (e.g., chain-saw crews into tree-clogged, unflooded major roads; rescue personnel in boats to respond to trapped victims in flooded areas, etc.). Otherwise, you risk high casualty rates. That will be covered in the recovery section of this exercise.
Choose a better answer, then click Done.
Results: After informing affected agencies, you contact the media to announce that it is now safe to leave their shelters.
Consequences: People leave their shelters and attempt to return to their homes. Traffic quickly becomes snarled from debris-covered roads. Winds are sustained at 58 mph and gusting much higher, so more debris is still blowing over roadways. Several high-profile vehicles wreck, blocking major roadways. Many people are injured as they enter damaged buildings, get trapped in floods, or are involved in automotive accidents.
Critique: The "all-clear" is meant for first responders and is issued generally when winds have subsided below 39 mph sustained. In the recovery section, we'll discuss re-entry procedures.
Choose a better answer, then click Done.
Results: Continue collecting information on what people will need after the storm. You already know that you will need generators at the sewage pumping station.
Consequences: You contact the state about the need for the generators. Whenever possible, contact government and private agencies to push along the process of securing supplies that will be needed later.
Critique: This is the best course of action. Although the worst winds have moved north, 58-mph and higher winds are still moving through the county, and it is too dangerous for anyone to leave shelters yet.
Scenario: Evaluation

Hear that? Silence. At least inside the EOC.
It is now October 5, 4 AM. The winds have subsided well below 39 mph (34 kt) sustained, and you sound the "all clear." However, this does not mean that everyone can simply resume their lives. This is a very dangerous period immediately after the storm as people cope with damaged buildings, flooded areas, downed power lines, fires, wildlife, and other hazards.
For example, of the 54 deaths directly attributed to Hurricane Andrew, 18 occurred after the storm during the recovery phase. Of those identified, 8 were stress-induced heart attacks, 3 were killed in damaged buildings (falls and debris), and 2 were children who died in fires in damaged homes. Hopefully your pre-hurricane season outreach activities have educated your citizens about the dangers after a storm passes, as well as precautions to take before one hits.
Your hurricane plans should have procedures for:
- Status of Responders: Find out the condition of emergency personnel and their equipment.
- Damage Reports: Obtain damage reports from shelter personnel, responders, the state division of emergency management, and towns (e.g., damage to electrical and water utilities, emergency vehicles, and communications equipment). Aerial surveillance can be a very effective tool to survey damage.
- Needs Assessments: Assess what is needed to get the community back up and running (e.g., power, water, sewage facilities, medical care, ice, food, temporary shelters, clothing, and replacements for damaged items in the damage reports). Obtain needs assessments from shelter personnel, responders, and agencies like the Red Cross and Salvation Army.
- Re-entry: Determine when to let first responders into specific areas, what tasks have highest priority, and that they communicate their status regularly. Also determine when you will let the general population in. Much of this should be planned before hurricane season-for example, what the different re-entry phases will be, the policy about when people will be allowed back in (and publicize the policy well before the storm), what identification will be required to enter areas, etc. Make sure these policies have been coordinated with the state and surrounding communities.
- Mutual Aid: Determine mutual aid requirements based on your needs and damage assessments so you can obtain resources quickly (including personnel to relieve responders who are tired and may be damage victims themselves). Request assistance from nearby unaffected communities and/or states under the Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) and other local agreements.
Scenario: Recovery

As the evaluation results come in from first responders, more aid is mustered to care for casualties, restore critical utilities, and clear debris.
After the most critical needs are met, longer-term processes begin. Relief supplies and additional personnel come into the stricken area. Federal and state assistance forms are filled out. Emergency management programs are assessed. Hurricane mitigation policies are reviewed and modified. Eventually, the community carries out hurricane mitigation activities. The long process of economic recovery begins.
Issues
The kinds of issues that must be dealt with during the recovery phase and as part of planning for the next hurricane are described below.
Assess Building Codes by Assessing Storm Damage
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Summary
Decisions and Planning
It’s difficult to make good decisions during an emergency like a hurricane. That’s why extensive planning is necessary to reduce the number of actions to choose from and to make the decision process as automatic as possible.
Complications
Decision-making during hurricane emergencies is complicated by:
- The need for many agencies across governmental jurisdictions to cooperate "in sync"
- The variable nature of the storm threat and the difficulties in predicting its behavior
- The effects of evacuations on a community
Ingredients for Good Decisions
Good decisions require that you:
- Maintain up-to-date emergency plans that describe how to prepare for and respond to a hurricane. Decisions are tough enough even with careful and detailed planning-and practically impossible without.
- Conduct training and periodic exercises to acquaint people with their roles and responsibilities.
- Develop ways to coordinate effectively with other decision makers, agencies involved in hurricane preparations, and the media.
- Know what special-needs populations exist and what help they will require. These can include the elderly, disabled, and sick, as well as non-English speaking residents and visitors.
- Know how to assess available forecast information, especially probabilities. Maintain a relationship with your local weather forecast office (WFO) and stay in contact with them for their latest advice.
- Monitor national weather conditions that could influence the hurricane.
- Monitor local events (e.g., conventions, road construction, sporting events) that could affect evacuation timing.
- Assess the risks of forecast uncertainty; consider preparing for intensity one category worse than forecast and for landfall closer than forecast.
- Use decision-making tools like HURREVAC to help tie weather updates to community characteristics.
- Act conservatively to save lives and be prepared to take the heat if the storm loses intensity or hits farther away than forecast.
Information Needed for Good Decisions
Information you can use when making decisions during a hurricane emergency includes:
- Local Emergency Operations Plan (EOP), including hurricane components
- Advisories and forecasts provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
- Statements, advisories, and forecasts provided by local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)
- HURREVAC, software that graphically connects forecast storm data with information about your local community to assist with evacuation decisions
Implementing Hurricane Plans
The detailed procedures called out in a hurricane plan will vary by community because of population density, the topography, proximity to the coast, and many other factors. Generally speaking, however, the following activities occur as the tropical cyclone develops into a hurricane and approaches the community:
- Awareness: Notify people of the impending storm
- Standby: Prepare emergency services
- Decision: Decide to evacuate
- Preparation: Place resources into position
- Evacuation: Evacuate
- Storm Event: Everyone sheltered
- Evaluation: Assess the emergency and respond
- Recovery: Rebuild and plan for the future
Decisions are Mostly about Timing
Timing is critical when carrying out these procedures, and most of the decisions involve when to act, not what to do.
- Knowing when to act is based on careful interpretation of storm conditions and forecasts by the NHC and local WFOs.
- Constantly monitor the intensity, track, and forward speed of the hurricane. Compare that information with the data about who is vulnerable in your community for a hurricane of a given intensity and how long it will take to move them to shelter.
- Continually calculate the actual size of the hurricane (not just the location of its center) and how fast it is approaching in order to determine if there is sufficient clearance time.
This concludes the course. A link to the FEMA IS-324.a exam and the MetEd quiz and one for our user survey are available in the menu bar to the left.