Making Good Decisions
City of San Antonio and Bexar County Emergency Operations Center
It can be hard to make "good" decisions during an emergency. It is particularly difficult when tropical cyclones strike because their speed, direction, and intensity can be difficult to predict. In addition, there are complex factors to take into consideration, including communicating with the public, coordinating with decision makers and elected officials, and working with emergency response partners. For these and other reasons, a "good" decision about hurricane evacuations is one that is prepared for well in advance of an approaching storm, and even begins during the planning phase. Your Hurricane Evacuation Studies, Technical Data Report products, and Post-Storm Assessments are all examples of planning tools and resources that can be used to support your decision-making process. HURREVAC and SLOSH are additional tools that can be used operationally. As the storm approaches, you can rely on your planning scenarios and HES operational tools to ensure a safe and effective response to protect your community from the impacts of tropical cyclones.
In this section, you'll go through a scenario based on the experiences of local and county emergency managers who have firsthand experience with decision-making during landfalling hurricanes. The scenario presents situations that will likely differ from your community's conditions, but it illustrates some of the general considerations that should be made at various times of the decision-making process as a storm approaches.
Sound decision-making by emergency managers is based on a number of factors and encompasses all phases of preparation, operations, response, and recovery. Some of the main principles that will be emphasized in the scenario are:
- Monitor national forecast products, especially those from NHC
- Be aware of local events (e.g., conventions, sporting events, road construction) that could affect evacuation timing.
- Holidays can also affect the number of people that need to evacuate as well as the availability of key players needed to implement your emergency plan. Make sure you know how to reach these people during hurricane season.
- Assess the forecast uncertainty and prepare for impacts one category higher than the forecasted intensity and landfall closer than predicted
- Use decision-making tools such as HURREVAC to help tie weather impacts to community characteristics and vulnerabilities identified in the Hurricane Evacuation Study for your area
- Act conservatively to save lives and be prepared to take the political heat if the storm loses intensity or hits farther away than forecast
Sometimes the best decision that can be made with the information available to you at the time will be inadequate, and sometimes it will be wildly unpopular. But if you prepare thoroughly, use the available forecast products wisely, and act conservatively to save lives, you can make the decision that is best for your community.